Potential rise in the US renewable fuel standard rate could create problems for small refineries
A 3% annual production growth in biofuels is expected over the next five years, but this falls significantly short of the International Energy AgencySustainable Development Scenario. The scenario aims for a 10% output growth per year.
But biofuel production may rise in the US because Trump has indicated he might assist US farmers harmed by the trade war with China by increasing requirements for US ethanol production.
Trump may choose to raise the Environmental Protection Agency's Renewable Fuel Standard by up to 5% (by 1 billion gallons in volume).
This scenario would be positive for biofuel producers, but it could create problems for smaller oil refineries in the USA. The Renewable Fuel Standard program is structured by a system in which refiners that blend refined products with ethanol are incentivised to do so because they receive a Renewable Identification Number [RIN] (a form of clean air credit).
Because refineries are responsible for collecting and submitting their RINs, a secondary unofficial market trading RINs has emerged. Smaller refineries that do not produce ethanol blends have found themselves having to purchase RINs at ever-rising prices. They may suffer if Trump raises the biofuel mandate by another 1 billion gallons, because this would force refiners to make more blended gas-ethanol for which demand is absent.
We continue to monitor these events as they unfold, and we will inform our customers of key changes as and when they affect the cost or accessibility of biofuel.